Recycling chemical fiber - market is like a crazy roller coaster

In November, the end-of-year drama of recycling chemical fiber industry was a rare big market in recent years. Whether it is a huge increase or a bottomless decline, the profound impact on the market has not yet been eliminated. On November 4th, with the quantitative easing policies announced by the Federal Reserve, hot money quickly followed suit, and cotton, PTA and other related industries surged one after another, driving the prices of raw and recycled polyester chains and other products to rise rapidly. Daily gains of nearly a thousand dollars continued until the evening of November 10, with the central bank announced the increase in reserve ratio, price regulation measures introduced, the market rally frozen, fell into a continuous decline channel.

In this round of rally, the primary polyester chain took the lead in the rise and fall of cotton primary substitute polyester staple fiber. In the recycling of chemical fiber, the first place in the rise or fall is the original substitute recycled polyester staple fiber. The mainstream factory price of high-strength and high-strength imitation products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased from RMB 11,000 to RMB 11,500/ton (including tax) to RMB 16,000 to RMB 17,500/ton (including tax), and then dropped to RMB 13,000 to RMB 14,000/ton (including tax). The ex-factory price of three-dimensional hollow mainstream in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quickly rose from RMB 10,800 to RMB 11,300/ton (including tax) to RMB 15,000 to RMB 16,000/ton (including tax). After a week of strong quotes, the factory price of 3D mainstream products was re-evaluated to the current 12,000 to 13,000 yuan/ton (including tax). The mainstream factory price of Jiangsu and Zhejiang's recycled POY150D rose from RMB 10,500 to RMB 11,000/ton (including tax) to around RMB 16,000/ton (including tax) before falling to RMB 12,500 to RMB 13,000/ton (including tax).

Compared with the price at the end of October, the current price of recycled chemical fiber is still much higher, and manufacturers sell firestorms, and pre-sale measures are widespread. But this round of roller coaster market is difficult to get the approval of manufacturers, because this is a kidnapped market. From recycled polyester staple fibers to recycled hollows, regrown yarns, and raw chips, filaments, and even viscose products, they are tied to chariots based on cotton as a hot-water speculation. The helplessness of the non-reporting, the boycotting of the downstream, and the bottomless decline after the withdrawal of hot money are all left to the industry itself.

Due to the ever-changing macroeconomic environment and the strong intervention policy, even if the chemical fiber plant does not maintain the stability of the joint shipment, it cannot stop the price from continuing to fall, and then it will instead drastically reduce the price of raw materials. In early November, the price of bottle-grade materials still showed a trend of rising, and the price has risen by nearly 2,000 yuan. However, since the 12th, Jiangsu Jiangnan Chemicals has significantly reduced the purchasing price by 2,800 yuan/ton, and the price of chemical fiber has been falling all the way, making the bottle grade material market slump after mid-to-late November. At the end of November, the bottle grade fell further to a level lower than the price at the end of October. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and the United States in the three-dimensional blank on-chip machine material quotes from 8100 ~ 8300 yuan / ton rose to 10,000 to 10,500 yuan / ton, after fell to 7800 ~ 8200 yuan / ton (excluding tax). This price, which was lower than before the surge, undoubtedly contributed to the panic atmosphere in the market and made it even more difficult for the recycled chemical fiber to fall.

At present, it seems that due to delays in the market for recycled chemical fiber, coupled with the price decline for two consecutive weeks, the downstream wait-and-see is not willing to purchase, so that manufacturers inventories rise, the adjustment of the latter part of the product price is inevitable. However, with the gradual reduction of state intervention and the slowdown in the decline of cotton and PTA**, once the renewable fiber market bottomed out, the downstream procurement enthusiasm may rebound. Although there was still a slight increase in the recycling of chemical fiber in the first half of December, it was expected that the operation of the chemical fiber plant will be more cautious after this “roller coaster”. In the short term, the regenerated chemical fiber market may be dominated by weak consolidation.